RBI MPC Likely to Stay the Course as Growth Holds Firm; Geopolitical Risks Cloud the Outlook

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee, led by Governor Sanjay Malhotra, is widely expected to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.25% in the April review, with the central bank likely preferring caution over a fresh policy move. Recent reporting points to strong domestic growth momentum, resilient credit trends and a still-benign inflation backdrop as reasons to maintain the status quo. At the same time, escalating West Asia tensions, volatile crude prices and currency risks are adding an external layer of uncertainty that could make policymakers wary of cutting rates too soon. The RBI has already signalled that the current policy rate is appropriate and that its neutral stance allows it to stay data-dependent. For now, the consensus view is that the MPC will pause and watch how geopolitics, inflation and growth evolve before taking its next step.